Big Ten Program Reset, Part 2: Wisconsin and Northwestern
Tracking the off-season changes for the Badgers and Wildcats and a preview of the road ahead
The Big Ten Program Reset series continues with Part 2 - this week features Big Ten West foes Wisconsin and Northwestern. In case you missed it, you can find Part 1 for Michigan and Indiana here. Thanks as always for reading, cheers!
Wisconsin Badgers Program Reset:
Athletic director Chris McIntosh surprised the college football world when he fired Paul Chryst after a blowout loss to Illinois in early October of the 2022 season. True, the program felt stagnant and Chryst was underperforming, but a mid-season firing still felt out of character for the normally steady Badgers. Then McIntosh surprised again by passing over heir apparent and interim head coach Jim Leonhard for Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell to be the Badgers’ new head coach.
Hiring Fickell is widely considered one of the best hires in the recent coaching carousel. Joining Fickell in Madison is new OC Phil Longo, who brings his up-tempo Air Raid system to Wisconsin. It’s a big pivot away from the traditional ground-and-pound tenets of the program, but one that feels overdue given Wisconsin’s struggles to move the ball and score. A change in scheme necessitates tweaking offensive personnel, and the Badgers added important pieces accordingly. As a result, Wisconsin should carry lofty expectations in 2023 despite the changes to the program.
Returning Roster:
No returning player is more essential to Wisconsin’s offense than RB Braelon Allen. The Badgers may benefit from a more efficient passing game with a new playbook and signal caller, but Allen is still the straw that stirs the drink in Madison. The run-heavy pro-style offense guaranteed Allen steady touches, but a productive passing game should open up running lanes and lighter defensive fronts. Concerning the passing game, Wisconsin will bring back most of their receiving room from 2022. The group as a whole was hard to gauge given the struggles at QB, but Chimere Dike, Markus Allen, Skyler Bell, and Keontez Lewis are poised to produce more consistently in 2023. The Badgers will also get TE Clay Cundiff back. Cundiff suffered two season ending injuries in as many years, but he could be one of the conference’s best tight ends if healthy in this new offense. The departures of OLs Joe Tippmann and Tyler Beach are significant on the offensive front, but the Badgers return plenty of experience from OT Jack Nelson, OG Trey Wedig, OG Tanor Botolini, and OT Riley Mahlman.
On defense, Nick Herbig and Keeanu Benton depart for the NFL, but several contributors return for Wisconsin’s defense that ranked 13th in yards per play nationally. The Badgers bring back their top two leading tacklers with linebackers (Jordan Turner and Maema Njongmeta), two defensive linemen (Rodas Johnson and Isaiah Mullens), both starting safeties (Kamo’i Latu and Hunter Wohler) and and sixth-year senior starting corner Alexander Smith. While the Badgers offense remains a work in progress, the defense is well positioned to maintain its edge as a top defensive unit in the conference. It will be interesting to see what scheme changes are implemented with Mike Tressel at the helm. Based on his time with the Bearcats, Wisconsin may shift from a traditional 3-4 defense to a 3-3-5. Regardless, the Badgers have the personnel on defense to remain one of the conference’s best units.
Recruiting Class:
As of February 9, 2023, Wisconsin’s recruiting ranking is:
On3: 10th in the Big Ten, 47th overall
247: 12th in the Big Ten, 58th overall
Rivals: 11th in the Big Ten, 58th overall
Luke Fickell’s first recruiting class is a tame one. The Badgers opted for the transfer portal to fill gaps in the roster and added a modest class of just fifteen commits. Still, Wisconsin is not known as a recruiting juggernaut, so the ranking in the 40s in the first year of the new regime is not alarming. Wisconsin is poised to increase its presence as a recruiting threat under the new staff and it will be interesting to see what Fickell and his staff put together following a full recruiting cycle in 2024. The Badgers class is highlighted by a trio of 4-stars: OL James Durand, ATH Braedyn Moore, and CB Amare Snowden. Given this staff’s track record of producing NFL-caliber defensive backs, Moore (projected to play safety) and Snowden are very interesting prospects long-term.
Transfer Portal Additions:
Wisconsin’s splashy exploits in the transfer portal are representative of the culture shift in Madison. Not one, not two, but THREE quarterback additions? No transfer at Wisconsin (and maybe in the Big Ten) is a bigger portal addition than Tanner Mordecai. The fit for the former SMU signal-caller is a perfect one with Longo and Wisconsin’s new scheme. In two seasons as SMU’s starter, Mordecai completed 596 of 897 passes (66.4 percent) for 7,152 yards with 72 TDs and 22 INTs. Mordecai offers more than just minimum competency, he’s a legitimate passing threat capable of putting points on the board. His addition also buys the Badgers more time to develop additional fellow transfer quarterbacks Nick Evers (Oklahoma) and Braedyn Locke (Mississippi State).
The Badgers were also aggressive in boosting the offensive supporting cast. On the offensive line, C Jake Renfro followed Fickell from Cincinnati to Wisconsin and is a plug-and-play replacement for Joe Tippmann in the trenches. The Badgers also added a pair of intriguing receivers in Bryson Green from Oklahoma State and CJ Williams from USC. While the defense is largely still intact, DL Darian Varner (Temple) should add more depth up front and help fill the void left by Benton. The Badgers may still be on the hunt for help in the interior during the May portal window. Overall, Wisconsin’s 15th ranked transfer class includes a variety of immediate contributors as well as developmental projects who can contribute down the road.
2023 Forecast:
Any prediction for a team in the Big Ten West is a perilous endeavor, but Wisconsin is too good to finish outside the top four of the division again. A non-conference road-trip to face the Cougs in Pullman is a tough (but not impossible) early challenge. The Badgers play the Buckeyes as a cross-divisional opponent, but at least that game is at home in late October. Wisconsin should have plenty of time to test the limits of the new offense and (hopefully) find a rhythm by the time the Ryan Day and Co. come to town. Outside of Ohio State, the Badgers draw Rutgers and Indiana in cross-divisional play, two very manageable East opponents. In the West, the Badgers get Iowa and Nebraska at home and face road matchups against Illinois and Minnesota.
It is a lot to ask any program to contend for a conference championship in a head coach’s first year, but Wisconsin is more than capable. This defensive unit is begging for the bare minimum of production from this Badger offense and Fickell has done a tremendous job building offensive personnel to deliver. In the last year of the East/West split, the Big Ten is structured to repeat the old narratives - a top heavy Big Ten East and a wide-open West. Given the transitions and uncertainties across the division, Wisconsin has every reason to enter 2023 optimistically as a front-runner for the West crown and a spot in Indianapolis for the conference title game. We won’t really know if the offense works until we see it, but a bounce-back season in Madison is much easier to imagine after a few months under Fickell.
2023 Schedule:
9/2: vs Buffalo
9/9: at Washington State
9/16: vs Georgia Southern
9/23: at Purdue
9/30: Bye
10/7: vs Rutgers
10/14: vs Iowa
10/21: at Illinois
10/28: vs Ohio State
11/4: at Indiana
11/11: vs Northwestern
11/18: vs Nebraska
11/25: at Minnesota
Northwestern Wildcats Program Reset:
Wait, 2022 was an even year, right? Northwestern’s every-other-year trend broke with eleven straight losses and zero wins on American soil. The reigning National Champions of Ireland were the lowest scoring team in the entire Power 5 in 2022 and the Wildcats desperately needed to upgrade their personnel this off-season.
Returning Roster:
While Pat Fitzgerald’s job security was never truly in doubt in 2022, the same could not be said for his staff. Defensive Coordinator Jim O’Neil, Defensive Line Coach Marty Long, and Wide Receiver Coach Dennis Springer were all shown the door. Northwestern (eventually) filled the gaps with David Braun (defensive coordinator), Armon Binns (receivers coach), and Christian Smith (defensive line coach).
Four key contributors OL Peter Skoronski, Edge Adetomiwa Adebawore, RB Evan Hull, and WR Donny Navarro III declared for the NFL Draft. A handful of players also departed via portal (see discussion below on portal moves).
2022’s Week 1 starter Ryan Hilinski returns at QB, but is he a capable starter? The 2022 campaign suggests he isn’t. Is another quarterback ready to step up? Brendan Sullivan, Carl Richardson, Cole Freeman, and Jack Lausch all saw at least some (albeit limited) game action in 2021 and each will have an opportunity to win the starting job. RB Cam Porter was the team’s second-leading rusher and is expected to move into the starting role with Hull’s departure. Receivers Bryce Kirtz, Genson Hooper Price, Jacob Gill had modest stat lines in 2022 but will be expected to take over with the program’s two reception leaders out the door. Up front, Skoronski’s departure was expected, but it leaves Northwestern with a bare cupboard. Northwestern needs a near total rebuild in the trenches, which typically does not bode well in a physical conference like the Big Ten.
On defense, the Wildcats turned to the FCS in hiring David Braun as DC. Braun was the 2021 FCS Coordinator of the Year at North Dakota State where he helped the Bison win two FCS national championships in 2019 and 2021. In both of those seasons, NDSU finished as the top-ranked scoring defense in the FCS. Braun will have his work cut out for him in Evanston given the talent leaving the roster and the lack of production returning.
Recruiting Class:
As of February 9, 2023, Northwestern’s recruiting ranking is:
On3: 8th in the Big Ten, 43rd overall
247: 10th in the Big Ten, 46th overall
Rivals: 9th in the Big Ten, 45th overall
Northwestern assembled a solid recruiting class, but it may have been boosted if NW brought a full coaching staff into the early signing period. Northwestern’s class is highlighted by 4-star LB Nigel Glover from Dayton, Ohio. Glover is the Wildcats’ lone 4-star in the class.
Fitzgerald and his staff had Northwestern’s 2023 class as high as 5th nationally last June, but their lackluster play on the field certainly slowed that momentum. For example, 4-star commit Ashton Porter committed to the ‘Cats in June and de-committed in October before eventually signing with Oregon. Northwestern’s incoming crop is solid, but slightly disappointing given the program’s momentum over the summer.
Transfer Portal Additions:
While Big Ten programs like Wisconsin jumped at the chance to fill holes in their roster through the portal, the Wildcats haven’t joined in. A total of nine players left via the portal including WR Malik Washington (Virginia), CB A.J. Hampton (Tulane) and DL Austin Firestone (Missouri). Meanwhile, the ‘Cats add only one new transfer, WR Camron Johnson, who spent the 2022 season at Arizona State where he caught 10 passes for 84 yards. That’s not exactly the resume you’d like to see for a receiver group already lacking depth.
Northwestern’s approach to the portal is particularly stark when compared to the other movement in the division, especially at the quarterback position. The Big Ten West welcomes a significant influx of transfer talent at the position at every other program (save Minnesota). Maybe another year will help Northwestern’s quarterbacks develop, but it feels like the Wildcats are stuck in the mud while conference peers adapt to the new landscape.
Despite the changing landscape with NIL and the transfer portal, Fitzgerald is trusting his emphasis on development and that (1) returning players will improve after another off-season and (2) new starters will step in and contribute at a higher level across the roster. On Signing Day, Fitzgerald reiterated: “We’re going to start with high school players. We’re not going to build this any other way.” True, the best programs in college football are built on player retention and development of high school recruits, not on transfer portal all-star teams. But is Northwestern recruiting at a high enough level to forego the portal to fill gaps? It would be a different story if the Wildcats returned a bevy of promising standouts from 2022, but this is a one win team losing the bulk of its 2022 contributors.
2023 Forecast:
The off-season moves (or lack thereof) do not exactly inspire confidence that Northwestern is going to have enough talent to win in 2023. The good news for Northwestern fans - the Wildcats schedule is manageable. Northwestern’s crossover opponents against the Big Ten East do not include Michigan or Ohio State (NW will play vs Penn State, vs Maryland, and at Rutgers). Northwestern’s non-conference Power 5 opponent is Duke, a program typically associated with mediocrity, but the Blue Devils finished second in the Coastal division last year and could pose a more difficult challenge than originally expected when the two meet in Durham.
Regardless, no one is coming in through the portal to save this roster barring some additions in the May portal window. Pat Fitzgerald will need returning players to make developmental leaps if the Wildcats have any hope of improvement in 2023. Northwestern is an interesting test subject in this new era of college football - while other programs look to the portal to rebuild lackluster rosters, Northwestern is doubling down on developing talent from within. The Wildcats will provide evidence one way or the other about whether this model is sustainable in today’s climate.
2023 Schedule:
9/2: at Rutgers
9/9: vs UTEP
9/16: at Duke
9/23: vs Minnesota
9/30: vs Penn State
10/7: vs Howard
10/14: Bye
10/21: at Nebraska
10/28: vs Maryland
11/4: vs Iowa* (at Wrigley Field)
11/11: at Wisconsin
11/18: vs Purdue
11/25: at Illinois