Making Sense of SEC Scheduling Preferences
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Making Sense of SEC Scheduling Preferences
A team-by-team breakdown and analysis of future scheduling and how it impacts the preference for eight or nine game slates
When news officially broke on June 1 that the SEC would be playing an eight game slate in 2024 with new members Texas and Oklahoma on board, conference decision-makers were not surprised by the public reaction.
“Look, over time nobody’s shying away from anything. We just didn’t add another game during a period of transition,” Commissioner Greg Sankey said in quasi-damage control. “If you’re that impatient, I’m glad you’re not leading a conference.”
The main rationale for the move (or lack thereof) being espoused by the SEC was the hope the conference could strike a deal with ESPN to boost payouts with additional annual conference games. Many SEC programs were loathe to part with a higher chance of achieving bowl eligibility without a kick-back from their broadcast partner.
Accordingly, Sankey and Co. kicked the decision down the road to next off-season in hopes they can squeeze the folks in Bristol, CT for a little more cash. Whether a 1-7 (one annual opponent and rotate the other seven) or a 3-6 (three annual opponents and rotate the other six) remains unsettled and will likely stay unresolved until next year when Texas and Oklahoma join as official members.
In addition to wanting more cash from ESPN, there was also concern about canceling so many future games as a result of moving to nine conference games. “I think there was discomfort just walking away from 14 non-conference games at this date,” Sankey said.
Despite these concerns, the public reaction has been largely negative.
Even some leaders in rival Power 5 conferences participated in the discourse, including Nebraska’s Atheletic Director Trev Alberts.
Many SEC fanbases rallied to defend the SEC banner, arguing the conference has nothing to prove.
The SEC has reigned atop college football for the majority of the past two decades, what does adding a ninth game do?
The likes of Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Florida, etc. are not going to be lower in the sport’s estimation if they don’t play nine games, this is a non-story.
These justifications miss the point. The SEC is the best conference in college football. The best programs play in the SEC. That’s not the issue. While the SEC might be able to cobble together a schedule for 2024 that protects the most important rivalries, it cannot do so in the long term. To maximize the enjoyment of the league, a conference should adopt a scheduling system that (1) preserves essential rivalries annually and (2) promotes semi-regular matchups with other conference members. An eight game slate cannot reconcile these maxims, where a nine game schedule very neatly does.
For the “big brands” of the conference voting against the nine game schedule, why are these programs against testing their mettle with one extra conference game? Programs like Alabama have nothing to prove given their recent record of success, but voting for an eight game slate still feels. . . soft. Is there some other motivation for Bama behind their preference for eight games?
For the middle/lower tier of the conference, criticism is more deserving. These programs are clearly invested in bolstering their chances to reach bowl eligibility, and more games outside the loaded SEC helps push those schools closer to that yearly goal.
At the same time, some programs are less deserving of the backlash given the context of their own future scheduling. If the college football public hate the eight game schedule because it falls short of each program playing ten games against Power 5 opponents, shouldn’t we excuse those programs who, under the eight game schedule model, scheduled two or more games against P5 teams in the future?
It can be easy to lump the nine member schools opposing a nine game schedule as “cowards.” But as stated above, not all schools act for cowardly (i.e., avoiding ten games against P5 schools) reasons.
To dig into the rationales of each program, I believe it is helpful to dive into the future schedules of each SEC team through 2030. In doing this, we can glean more context behind a given program’s scheduling preference and decide how much criticism is justified for each program. Moving alphabetically, we start with:
Alabama:
Vote: For eight games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Western Kentucky, vs USF, at Wisconsin, vs Mercer
2025: at Florida State, vs ULM, vs Wisconsin, vs Eastern Illinois
2026: at West Virginia, vs USF, vs Florida State, Open Game
2027: vs West Virginia, at Ohio State, Two Open Games
2028: vs Ohio State, vs UT Martin, at Oklahoma State, Open Game
2029: at Notre Dame, vs Oklahoma State, Two Open Games
2030: at Georgia Tech, vs Notre Dame, Two Open Games
The Tide’s decision against a nine game schedule makes more sense when reviewing their upcoming non-conference opponents. With the exception of 2024, Alabama is set to play two P5 programs every season through 2030. The Tide also didn’t just schedule your run-of-the-mill opponents with huge matchups with Ohio State and Notre Dame in the offing, in addition to quality matchups against Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia.
For these reasons, Bama’s vote appears to be less about being “scared” of playing ten P5 opponents and more about the logistics of axing various games against P5 opponents. Prior to 2025, Alabama regularly scheduled only one P5 opponent and three G5/FCS opponents. While the vote was disappointing for advocates of a nine game schedule, Saban and the university are clearly invested in moving beyond past scheduling tactics of playing just one P5 opponent and collection of cupcakes during non-conference play.
Arkansas:
Vote: For eight games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff, at Oklahoma State, vs UAB, vs Louisiana Tech
2025: vs Missouri State, vs Arkansas State, at Memphis, vs Notre Dame
2026: at Utah, vs Memphis, vs Tulsa, Open Game
2027: at Tulsa, vs Oklahoma State, Two Open Games
2028: vs Memphis, at Notre Dame, Two Open Games
2029: vs Tulsa, vs Utah, Two Open Games
2030: at Texas Tech, Three Open Games
Unlike the Tide, Arkansas never plays more than one P5 school (including the Irish as P5) from 2024 to 2030. True, the Razorbacks do make road trips to G5 schools Tulsa and Memphis, but as a school occupying the middle tier of the conference, Arkansas appears primarily concerned with bowl eligibility, i.e., building in as many likely wins as possible each year.
The move makes sense for the decision-makers in Fayetteville, but is nevertheless a weak position. If playing ten P5 opponents is the standard, Arkansas would not need to cancel any games against P5 foes and would only need to axe one G5/FCS game in both 2024 and 2025. The Razorbacks deserve some flack here, but perhaps not as much as . . .
Auburn:
Vote: For eight games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs California, vs New Mexico, vs ULM, Open Game
2025: at Baylor, vs Ball State, vs South Alabama, Open Game
2026: vs Baylor, vs Southern Miss, Two Open Games
2027: at UCLA, Three Open Games
2028: vs UCLA, Three Open Games
2029: at Miami (FL), Three Open Games
2030: vs Miami (FL), Three Open Games
As iffy as Arkansas’ justification for keeping an eight game slate might be, Auburn is even worse. Like the Razorbacks, the Tigers never play more than one current P5 opponent from 2024 to 2030. Unlike the Arkansas, Auburn does not play any G5 schools on the road, nor would Auburn be required to cancel a single game to make a nine game slate work. Nothing is stopping the Tigers from playing an additional SEC game except, of course, themselves. As a result, no SEC program is more deserving of the “coward” label.
Florida:
Vote: For nine games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Miami (FL), vs Samford, vs UCF, vs Florida State
2025: vs USF, at Miami (FL), vs Florida A&M, vs Florida State
2026: at NC State, vs Campbell, vs California, at Florida State
2027: at California, vs Florida State, Two Open Games
2028: vs Colorado, at Arizona State, at Florida State, Open Game
2029: at Colorado, vs Florida State, Two Open Games
2030: vs Texas (no longer valid), at UCF, at Florida State, Open Game
In sharp contrast to Auburn, the Gators aren’t shying away from a tough schedule. True, Florida’s P5 numbers are boosted by UCF’s recent elevation from G5 to P5, but the Gators would have a formidable list of non-conference opponents regardless. Florida faces three P5 opponents in three of the applicable seven seasons from 2024 to 2030 and would have had four seasons with three P5 opponents if Texas had not joined the SEC. That, paired with the Gators favoring the nine game schedule, make the folks in Gainesville a beacon of hope for college football fans across the country. Florida would certainly have to make some changes to their schedule, but their willingness to do so should earn them some respect across the country. Gator Nation, we salute you.
Georgia:
Vote: For nine games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Clemson (in Atlanta), vs Tennessee Tech, vs UMass, vs Georgia Tech
2025: at UCLA, vs Austin Peay, vs Charlotte, at Georgia Tech
2026: vs UCLA, vs Western Kentucky, at Louisville, vs Georgia Tech
2027: at Florida State, vs Louisville, at Georgia Tech, Open Game
2028: vs Florida A&M, vs Florida State, vs Georgia Tech, Open Game
2029: at Clemson, at Georgia Tech, Two Open Games
2030: vs Clemson, vs North Carolina A&T, vs Ohio State, vs Georgia Tech
Georgia mirrors their southern rivals, voting for nine game slate with an already grueling set of schedules ahead of them from 2024 to 2030. For all the flack UGA has caught for their weak 2023 schedule (as a result of canceling the series with incoming member OU), the Dawgs stacked their future non-conference slate playing two or more P5 schools every season with three seasons featuring three games against P5 foes. As we saluted the Gators, we salute Georgia here.
Kentucky:
Vote: For eight games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: at Akron, vs Ohio, vs Murray State, vs Louisville
2025: vs Toledo, vs Eastern Michigan, vs Tennessee Tech, at Louisville
2026: vs Akron, vs Youngstown State, vs South Alabama, vs Louisville
2027: vs Toledo, vs Murray State, vs Ball State, at Louisville
2028: at Toledo, vs Kent State, vs Eastern Illinois, vs Louisville
2029: vs Georgia Southern, at Louisville, Two Open Games
2030: vs Louisville, Three Open Games
Back to the shaming we go, this time in Lexington. While Kentucky would be required to cancel several upcoming games to accommodate a nine game conference schedule, the slate put together by UK deserves criticism. The Wildcats do not play more than one current P5 foe in each season listed, and Big Blue Nation’s only non-conference P5 opponent from 2024 to 2030 is Louisville. That’s it. Kentucky falls squarely into the “cowards” category of SEC programs desperate to boost their win totals each season with a smattering of games against FCS and MAC programs.
LSU:
Vote: For nine games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs USC (Las Vegas), vs UCLA, vs South Alabama, Open Game
2025: at Clemson, vs Louisiana Tech, vs Western Kentucky, Open Game
2026: vs Clemson, Three Open Games
2027: vs Houston (NRG Stadium in Houston), vs UTSA, Two Open Games
2028: Four Open Games (series with OU invalid)
2029: vs Arizona State, vs Rice, Two Open Games
2030: at Arizona State, Three Open Games
While perhaps not as proactive as Florida or Georgia, LSU avoids the coward connotation by supporting the nine game conference schedule. The Tigers double up with PAC 12 Big Ten members USC and UCLA in 2024, but otherwise have a modest and malleable schedule from 2024 to 2030. LSU’s situation is similar to that of Auburn’s - few if any games would need to be canceled, making a vote for a nine game slate the only right move. Unlike their fellow Tigers, however, LSU actually followed through.
Mississippi:
Vote: For eight games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Furman, vs Middle Tennessee, at Wake Forest, vs Georgia Southern
2025: at USC, vs The Citadel, vs Wake Forest, vs Tulane
2026: at Charlotte, vs USC, vs Georgia State, vs Eastern Kentucky
2027: vs Charlotte, at UConn, vs Oregon State, Open Game
2028: vs South Alabama, vs Alcorn State, at BYU, vs UConn
2029: at South Alabama, vs BYU, Two Open Games
2030: at Oregon State, vs Georgia Southern, Two Open Games
Ole Miss has quite a peculiar assortment of upcoming non-conference opponents. The Rebels only face more than one P5 opponent once from 2024 to 2030 (in 2025 at USC and vs Wake). The P5 opponent in 2028 and 2029 being BYU is also notable, as the Cougars are only recent additions to the Power 5. At the same time, Ole Miss hits the road for non-P5 games against Charlotte, UConn and South Alabama. If the SEC opted for a nine game schedule, the Rebels would need to alter their future non-conference schedule and cancel a few games. Still, Ole Miss is less Alabama and more Auburn - a light non-conference schedule falling short of ten P5 opponents and a lame vote to maintain a weaker schedule to guarantee a higher floor for bowl eligibility.
Mississippi State:
Vote: For eight games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Eastern Kentucky, at Arizona State, vs Utah State, vs UMass
2025: at Southern Miss, vs Arizona State, vs Alcorn State, vs Northern Illinois
2026: vs ULM, at Minnesota, vs Troy, vs Tennessee Tech
2027: vs Minnesota, at Troy, vs Chattanooga, Open Game
2028: vs Texas Tech, at Memphis, Two Open Games
2029: at Texas Tech, vs Memphis, Two Open Games
2030: vs Washington State, vs Tulane, at Southern Miss, Open Game
Like their in-state rivals, Mississippi State has several road games scheduled against G5 opponents, including Southern Miss, Troy, and Memphis. But the same criticism for the Rebels applies to the Bulldogs - Mississippi State faces a light schedule and while they would be required to cancel some games, the vote against the nine game schedule was made to avoid a more competitive/entertaining schedule.
Missouri:
Vote: For nine games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Murray State, vs Buffalo, vs Boston College, at UMass
2025: vs Kansas, at Miami (OH), vs Louisiana, vs UMass
2026: vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff, at Kansas, at Illinois, vs Troy
2027: vs Illinois State, at San Diego State, vs Illinois, vs FAU
2028: vs San Diego State, vs Southeast Missouri State, at Illinois, vs Northern Illinois
2029: vs Missouri State, vs Illinois, at Northern Illinois, vs Army
2030: vs Southeast Missouri State, vs Colorado, at North Texas, vs FAU
While Mizzou’s schedule is not exactly loaded, the Tigers avoid shaming by opting for the nine game schedule, particularly because of their standing as a middle/lower tier member of the conference. Of the five programs in favor of nine games, Missouri stands out among those big brand programs in favor of nine games (UGA, Florida, LSU, and A&M).
The Tigers deserve a lot of credit here, as they could easily have justified standing pat with eight games to bolster their chances of getting to bowl games. Missouri also could have justified an eight game schedule because they would be required to cancel a game in every season from 2024 to 2030, as the Tigers are one of the few teams to fully flesh out their future schedules.
The Tigers are a middle/lower tier conference member and could easily have opted for a lighter schedule like so many of their conference peers. Despite this, Mizzou voted for a the tougher but correct scheduling model. While the Tigers have struggled and are generally considered the SEC’s redheaded stepchild, they made the right choice here and deserve some praise.
South Carolina:
Vote: For eight games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Old Dominion, vs Akron, vs Wofford, at Clemson
2025: vs Virginia Tech (Atlanta), vs Coastal Carolina, vs Clemson, Open Game
2026: vs Miami (FL), vs Towson, at Clemson, Open Game
2027: vs ECU, vs Appalachian State, at Miami (FL), vs Clemson
2028: vs North Carolina, vs Wofford, at Clemson, Open Game
2029: at North Carolina, vs Appalachian State, vs Clemson, Open Game
2030: vs NC State, at Clemson, Two Open Games
The Gamecocks likely fall under the Alabama rationale, that is, South Carolina has scheduled multiple P5 opponents in the future and would play ten P5 opponents annually through 2030. If the standard is playing ten P5 schools year-to-year, South Carolina has “passed” that test. The Gamecocks might not be on Alabama’s level in terms of on-field success, but they do fit into the same box as the Tide for this exercise - while it is still a little disappointing, the reasons for South Carolina’s vote to stay at eight games makes sense given the Gamecock’s future obligations to P5 non-conference opponents.
Tennessee:
Vote: For eight games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Chattanooga, vs NC State (Charlotte), vs Kent State, vs UTEP
2025: vs Syracuse (Atlanta), vs UAB, Two Open Games
2026: vs Furman, at Nebraska, vs Western Michigan, One Open Game
2027: vs Nebraska, Three Open Games
2028: vs West Virginia (Charlotte), Three Open Games
2029: vs Washington, Three Open Games
2030: at Washington, Three Open Games
The Shame Game returns for the Vols with a schedule that would be very adaptable to a nine game schedule. Tennessee would only need to cut one game in 2024 to make the nine game schedule work moving forward. Unlike South Carolina and Alabama, the Vols have not stacked their future schedule with multiple P5 opponents (though it must be noted the 2024 schedule was supposed to include OU before they joined the conference). Instead, Tennessee appears content to sit back and play only one P5 non-conference game and nine P5 games total per year.
Having appeared to finally get the ball rolling again in Knoxville, the move to preserve the eight game schedule looks weak for a program on the rise. Perhaps the Vols vote could change next off-season and opting for the 2024 eight game slate was purely a tactic to squeeze ESPN and avoid canceling a game.
Texas A&M:
Vote: For nine games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Notre Dame, vs McNeese, vs Bowling Green, vs New Mexico State
2025: vs UTSA, vs Utah State, at Notre Dame, vs Tarleton State
2026: vs Arizona State, Three Open Games
2027: vs Texas State, at Arizona State, vs New Mexico, vs Arkansas State
2028: vs Louisville, vs Abilene Christian, Two Open Games
2029: at Louisville, Three Open Games
2030: Four Open Games
The Aggies would need to do some maneuvering to accommodate and nine game schedule, but certainly stand ready to do so. Texas A&M is a perfect example for what the SEC risks in adopting the 1-7 model instead of the 3-6 nine game alternative. Although the SEC will almost certainly put A&M-Texas on the schedule for 2024, the 1-7 eight game schedule would preclude the rivalry from occurring annually. The 1-7 model guarantees only one annual game, and Texas’ pairing would be the Sooners, not the Aggies.
It is evident the powers that be in College Station favor the nine game schedule, thereby protecting more meaningful games such as Aggies-Longhorns. Any conference schedule where the two wouldn’t play annually would be a catastrophic failure by the SEC and its members. Hopefully when the issue arises again next summer, A&M will find more support.
Vanderbilt:
Vote: For eight games
Future Schedules: Non-Conference Opponents
2024: vs Virginia Tech (Nissan Stadium), vs Norfolk State, vs SMU, at Georgia State
2025: at Virginia Tech, vs Georgia State, vs Colorado State, Open Game
2026: vs Austin Peay, vs NC State, at Colorado State, Open Game
2027: vs Eastern Kentucky, at Stanford, Two Open Games
2028: vs SMU, at NC State, Two Open Games
2029: vs Purdue, at SMU, Two Open Games
2030: at Stanford, Three Open Games
As the traditional SEC cellar-dweller, Vanderbilt opted for the eight game schedule in 2024. Perhaps this was to avoid the cancellation of a future game, as the Commodores would otherwise not need to axe any future matchups starting in 2025. Still, Vandy likely subscribes to the belief that it would be prejudiced by substituting a non-conference game for an SEC opponent, thereby lowering their chances at bowl eligibility.
While the decision is more forgivable than some of other SEC programs, Vanderbilt’s preference to stick with eight games is still a let-down. Maybe, like their in-state rival, the Commodores will change their tune next year when they would no longer have to worry about canceling a non-conference game, but the divide between the SEC “haves” and “have nots” likely makes Vandy a proponent of eight games as long as possible.
Verdicts
For those wanting a TL;DR - in terms of our public perception of SEC programs on the scheduling divide, here’s how we should classify each member:
Heroes: Florida, Georgia
Right Side of History: LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M
Justifiable, but Still Wrong: Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee
Cowards: Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Truly Gutless: Auburn, Kentucky
Future Outlook
Texas and Oklahoma were not allowed to vote, as they are not official members until next summer. With both programs favoring a nine game conference schedule, will the conference eventually agree to add an additional game starting in 2025?
A simple majority is required to move to nine games. Assuming no votes change and with the Longhorns and Sooners in the mix, the votes would be in favor of an eight game schedule, 9 to 7. Some schools could be ready to flip. The most likely candidate might be Tennessee - the Vols were already forced to adjust their 2024 non-conference schedule with OU’s addition to the conference, maybe Tennessee wanted to play out the schedule as is and avoid further changes. The Vols’ non-conference schedule for 2025 would not need to be changed if the SEC moved to nine games starting that year.
Whether the Vols or other programs can be swayed remains a central issue that will continue to loom over the conference for another year. If a decision has not been made by this time next year (which is likely in order to get Texas and OU on board as voting members), the pressure will once again weigh heavy on the SEC and its members to move to a nine game schedule like the other P5 conferences.